![]() ![]() It was not until the 1920s( 14) that this cyclical process became apparent. They also occur over the long term periods of about 25 years. Fluctuations in economic activity do not only occur in the short and medium term. There were also those factors unbeknownst to him but of which we are aware today which make it easier for us to see how far luck was on his side. There is no doubt that Napoleon III was convinced that such fluctuations were bound to reoccur, to a greater or lesser extent, sooner or later, and that he had to be ready to face up to the worst case scenario. They had highlighted the replacement of workers by machines, the lack of demand and collective errors as to future requirements. These medium-term fluctuations had occurred in agriculture as well as trade and industry and they were spreading.( 11) They followed the movement of the British economy,( 12) and they had profound economic (for example, drops in prices), social (unemployment) and political repercussions (riots and social unrest).( 13) They had also been partly explained in different ways by Ricardo, Malthus and Say in the first quarter of the century. ![]() Emphasis had been placed on the movement from boom to bust, in other words, on the “slump”. Thus, the medium-term fluctuations of economic activity were acknowledged and had been discussed. He knew a certain amount, economists of the time had come to certain conclusions in this respect,( 10) and he had no doubt thought hard about the matter during his stay in England. However, this statement must be qualified. Like the economists of the time, he did not understand completely the characteristics of economic development, for the simple reasons that a) not all of the data was available( 9) and b) since the phenomenon of industrialisation was too recent, there was not enough past to look at with hindsight in order to understand recent phenomena and try to forecast future trends. In fact, from an economic point of view alone, Napoleon III's position was one of great uncertainty. The Empire had therefore to last until the end of the 1870s. He was 43 in 1851: the Prince Imperial was not to be born for another five years. Napoleon III knew that time was of the essence. This acquisition of power and well-being took the best part of a half century. For him, an increase in the national product which was faster than the growth in population had to be reflected in an increase in the standard of living( 7)( 8). In 1844, Napoleon III wrote a pamphlet entitled “L'extinction du paupérisme”. The process of industrialisation, which had begun more than three-quarters of a century earlier( 4) and which since 1830 had been accelerating, took off between 18 spurred on by growth in certain branches of industry such as the railways.( 5)Įconomic power must also allow for improvement in the welfare of the individual.( 6) It was important to combat the lack of material goods and physical poverty. Every effort was made to promote economic, monetary and financial development. Political power cannot be achieved without demographic and economic power, and large-scale and constantly renewable resources were therefore vital. Soon thereafter (1859), it was also to appear in its support in the struggle for Italian unity against the Austrian Empire, thereby diminishing Austria's power in the centre of Europe and also limiting its pretentions of hegemony over the Germanic Confederation.( 2) It was also reflected in Napoleon's desire to extend French influence throughout the world.( 3) This project manifested itself in the establishment of the Empire by waging war against Russia, thus aiming to prevent it from controlling the Straits,( 1) and in the attempt to increase the Empire's influence over Europe (1854-1856). In other words, to become a major power in Europe, at least continental Europe. The second project was to bring power to French society. ![]() By surviving – you might almost say, by overcoming death, or at any rate by appearing stronger than death, that dynasty would be remembered. The first, also one of Napoleon I's, was to found a dynasty. But he also came up with some ideas for overcoming it more or less completely. By reviewing his projects in the light of the obstacles to those projects, he firstly came to the conclusion that an economic slowdown was likely. Napoleon III did not remain inactive, however. 1857 was an important year for the Second Empire. ![]()
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